(WGHP) – We’ve been enjoying comfortable, fall-like temperatures this week, especially in the mornings, with plenty of sunshine. However, we’re still looking at the potential for a near-180-degree turn with rain chances and cooler temperatures by this weekend.
What’s coming this weekend?
The reason for the pattern change is that a non-tropical low-pressure system is forecast to develop off the east coast of Florida within the next couple days.
The National Hurricane Center states that the system could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday as it moves northward. The chance for development is at 40%.
This basically means we’re looking at a rainmaker with some gusty winds in North Carolina this weekend.
What do the models say?
Let’s take a look at how two of the main long-range models show this weekend playing out.
The European model shows the center of the low-pressure system off the coast of South Carolina on Friday afternoon. The American model positions the center of the low in nearly the same location.
When this happens it means that data is in agreement and confidence is higher for the location of the low-pressure itself. It also means that rain is likely to begin on Friday, especially along the coast of North Carolina.
As the low continues its movement northward, it will lead to increasing rain chances heading into Friday night and early Saturday morning. Due to the position of the system, the rain will likely be heaviest and most widespread along the North Carolina coast.
Both the European model and the American model show the Piedmont Triad likely remaining dry until Friday evening or late Friday night with the highest rain chances occurring during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning.
By 1 p.m. Saturday, the two different models show the center of the low in two different locations, indicating that there is some disagreement in the movement of the showers around the center of rotation.
The European model shows the low remaining off the coast of the Carolinas but still shows rain extending closer to central North Carolina. The American model depicts the center of the low pressure in eastern North Carolina.
Despite the disagreement for the location of the center of the low-pressure system, both the European and American models hint that we’ll see lingering showers throughout the early afternoon Saturday.
If we take a look at a third model, it depicts rain moving in much earlier than the other two models we’ve looked at. In fact, it shows some widespread rainfall moving into the Piedmont Triad late Friday afternoon and into the early evening.
It also shows lingering showers into early Saturday morning as the low continues its movement north. This model shows the rain moving in and out much earlier than the other two models.
Since only one of the three models shows rain in the Piedmont Triad on Friday, our confidence is low for showers to end the work week. With that said, we’ve left rain chances very low for Friday but this will be something the FOX8 weather team will have to monitor closely.
We’re confident in rain chances overnight Friday into Saturday since all three models are showing rain in that timeframe with lingering scattered showers on Saturday.
The heaviest of the rainfall looks to remain in eastern North Carolina with rainfall totals likely decreasing the further west in the Tar Heel State you live. This is reflected in the projected rainfall totals over the next 7 days.
How much rain could we get?
Depending on the track of the low-pressure system, we could see more or less rainfall however, generally, the eastern half of the Piedmont Triad looks to receive more rainfall this weekend.
Data shows the mountains and foothills receiving less than half an inch of rainfall. The eastern half of the Triad looks to receive up to an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
Even though this system is not expected to be a tropical storm, we’ll still see not just rain but windy conditions both Friday and Saturday.
Wind gusts on Friday will approach 30 mph. The strongest of the winds look to be in the eastern half of the Piedmont Triad, where the higher rainfall totals are expected to be.
The wind gusts continue to get stronger into Saturday with most of the Piedmont Triad seeing winds gusting up to 35 mph.
How are the temperatures looking?
The increased cloud cover and rain from our weekend system will likely keep temperatures cooler from Friday through the weekend.
Normal temperatures for the second to last weekend in September are in the upper 70s and we’ll generally be in the upper 60s and mid 70s this weekend.
Saturday looks to be the coolest day due to higher rain chances and increased cloud cover compared to the other three days.
As always, the forecast could change as we get closer to the weekend so be sure to stay tuned to the FOX8 Max Weather Team for the latest on weekend rain chances.