(WGHP) – November marks the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season and typically we begin to see tropical activity decrease. However, we’ve already had three named storms this month.

In November, the most likely area for a tropical system to form is in the western Caribbean Sea off the coast of Central America due to warm ocean conditions this time of year. However, we can also see tropical cyclones in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, off the southeastern U.S. coast or over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean.

The above map depicts where tropical cyclone activity tends to occur during November. The data shows the combined number of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes whose centers pass within 125 miles of a point on the map from 1944 to 2020.

Data from the National Hurricane Center suggests that in November, one storm forms every two years in the Atlantic basin. The last storm of the season typically forms on or before Nov. 23. 

The two most recent storms to bring tropical rain and winds to North Carolina in November were Ida in 2009 and Kate in 1985. 

Ida (2009) 

Ida formed on Nov. 4, 2009, and made multiple landfalls in the Caribbean, reaching its peak as a Category 2 hurricane over the Yucatan Channel on Nov. 8 with 105 mph winds. By the time Ida made landfall near the Alabama coast on Nov. 10, it had weakened to a post-tropical storm. The remnants of Ida eventually brought significant rainfall to the Carolinas. 

The Outer Banks received a foot of rain which led to coastal flooding and the closure of Highway 12 which was temporarily buried under feet of sand. The Piedmont Triad recorded 4.92 inches of rainfall from Ida. 

Kate (1985)

Kate formed over the Atlantic Ocean, north of the Virgin Islands on Nov. 15, 1985. Kate eventually strengthened to a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph. Kate made landfall near Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle on Nov. 21, just one week before Thanksgiving, with sustained winds of 100 mph. 

Kate brought spotty power outages and flash flooding in the Carolinas as it weakened and continued its movement northeast. 

At Piedmont Triad International Airport, 2.50 inches of rain was recorded from Kate over a three-day period of time.

Storm 6 (1904) 

Tropical Storm Six was the final storm of the 1904 hurricane season and formed over the Bay of Campeche on Oct. 31. At its peak strength, Tropical Storm Six reached sustained winds of 50 mph. 

The storm eventually made landfall near Fort Walton Beach, Florida, with winds of 40 mph and continued to track through the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina before becoming extratropical just offshore of South Carolina.  

The storm produced light to moderate rainfall across the southeastern United States and winds up to 36 mph were observed in New Orleans, LA and Pensacola, FL. 

Storm 9 (1899) 

Storm 9 from 1899 formed on Oct. 26 and strengthened to category 2 hurricane status by Oct. 30. It eventually made landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on Oct. 31 and quickly weakened once moving over land. 

Despite weakening as it tracked toward North Carolina, flooding was an issue, especially along the North Carolina coast. 

In Wrightsville Beach, N.C., tides were reportedly eight feet above normal, and water came over the wharves in Wilmington. Flooding occurred in New Bern, Morehead City and Beaufort. 

November 2022 Storms So Far

For only the third time on record, the Atlantic had two November hurricanes, Lisa and Martin, occur simultaneously. The other two years with simultaneous November hurricanes are 1932 (Cuba Hurricane and Storm 15) and 2001 (Michelle and Noel). 

After an active start to the month, the tropics remain busy with the third November named storm of the season, Subtropical Storm Nicole. 

Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves over the northern Bahamas toward the southwest Florida coast mid-week. 

The National Hurricane Center has issued tropical storm and hurricane watches, as well as storm surge watches, along Florida’s east coast. These will likely be upgraded to warnings as Nicole gets closer to the Bahamas and Florida. 

Forecast models show Nicole becoming better organized before reaching Florida by Wednesday. 

In the Sunshine State, the threat of significant coastal erosion and coastal flooding will rise by Wednesday night, especially during high tides. 

The worst of the weather is forecast to arrive in Florida by Wednesday evening into Thursday and will likely also bring flooding concerns to parts of inland Central Florida.

After making landfall in Florida, Nicole is forecast to make a northeast-ward turn and track over Georgia and the Carolinas. 

As of Monday, Nov. 7, forecast models are trending eastward in Nicole’s future track which would put the Triad on the western side of the storm. 

What does this mean for the Triad? 

Nicole looks to reach North Carolina as early as late Thursday and will arrive around the same time as a cold front. The cold front will steer Nicole eastward, which coincides with what forecast models are depicting in Nicole’s future track. 

Since Nicole will arrive around the same time as the front, the Triad will see a surge in moisture which will fuel rain chances as early as late Thursday night through early Saturday morning. 

Friday looks like a soggy day, so be sure to plan accordingly! 

Rainfall totals look to be between two to four inches for most of the Piedmont Triad.

With rain occurring all day Friday, we’ll need to watch for localized flooding. 

Not only will the Triad see rain most of Friday but we’ll also have strong winds as Nicole moves into the Carolinas. Wind speeds will reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible.