(WGHP) – The National Hurricane Center released their first tropical outlook of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday.
The NHC will release new tropical outlooks every six hours from May 15 through Nov. 30. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.
In the past, the NHC has released five-day outlooks. However, this year, the tropical outlooks will be extended to seven days. The reason is to give more advance warning on potential tropical storms.
January Subtropical Storm
While there are no active systems to watch as of the first official tropical outlook of the season, the Atlantic already recorded its first system in January.
In a press release on May 11, 2023, the National Hurricane Center said, “A subtropical storm formed in the Atlantic basin in mid-January 2023. … This subtropical storm is being numbered as the first cyclone of 2023 in the Atlantic basin.”
While the mid-January subtropical storm was the first cyclone of 2023 in the Atlantic basin, it was not named. If the next system begins as a tropical depression, the NHC says, “it would be tropical depression two, and, if it becomes a tropical storm, it would be given the name Arlene.”
According to the National Hurricane Center, “Only 3% of Atlantic tropical cyclones occur outside the official hurricane season.” The majority of out-of-season activity occurs in May and December. However, there has been either a tropical storm or hurricane observed in every month of the year.
On average, the first named storm typically forms in mid- to late June with the first hurricane of the season forming in early to mid-August. The first major hurricane typically forms in late August or early September, during the peak of hurricane season.
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts
According to the National Hurricane Center, based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
N.C. State released their forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. NC State forecasters are calling for 11 to 15 named storms this season with six to eight reaching hurricane strength and two to three becoming major hurricanes. Read more about NC State’s hurricane forecast here.
Colorado State University is also known for its hurricane season forecasts. CSU Forecasters are calling for a below-normal season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
NOAA will release its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 25 at 11 a.m.