On Nov. 23, I shared my Winter Weather Outlook.
Since that time, some new information has become available, as shown below.
Confidence is high that December will be warmer than normal and wetter than normal. Forecast model data available for the next 10 days supports this thinking.
Historically, strong El Nino winters start mild and get colder by mid to late winter. That also is reflected in the December-February outlook (3-month period showing near normal).
Given the warmer December, we would have to be colder in January and/or February for this to verify. That is also typical of an El Nino winter. Given the higher chance for above normal precipitation, we should be prepared for our biggest threat of winter weather January-early March. This is also typical here most years.