AUSTIN (KXAN) — Texas is nearly three weeks away from the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, a model produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggests.
According to those projections, the Lone Star State will hit peak hospital resource use on April 18.
At that time, the number of ICU beds needed for COVID-19 patients will exceed the number available in Texas, according to the model. However, the number of all hospital beds available will remain greater than the number of patients needing those beds.
IHME believes that Texas’ peak for daily deaths from the virus will peak two days earlier, on April 16. At the peak, 186 people could die in a day, figures suggest.
However, graphs produced by IHME suggest that the number of lethal cases could drop drastically by the start of June, and the virus could be almost completely eradicated by July.
The projections rely on assumptions that the public will practice strong social distancing, and that governments will bring in further protective measures.
There are 28,633 hospital beds in Texas, IHME says. At the virus’ strongest, the model predicts that about 19,000 COVID-19 patients will require use of those beds.
Of those patients, about 2,876 will need an ICU beds, projections claim – but there are only 2,259 ICU beds in the state.
The model predicts that the number of deaths from coronavirus will continue to climb until the middle of July. In total, it believes that about 5,847 people in Texas will die from the virus.
The same model suggests that 81,000 people will die from coronavirus in the United States.
IHME published the method it used to forecast these projections. It can be viewed here.