By now most of you are feeling the cold air.
Our window of opportunity for snow starts as early as Thursday night and remains until early Saturday morning. We will not get precipitation the entire time, that is just when the chance gets started. We also may still see this fall as a mix of rain and snow. Although during the coldest periods, it will more likely be snow. We do not expect any freezing rain.
Models vary still with the timing and amounts of precipitation. It has to do with the uncertainty of the low pressure location and strength along our coast and the upper level energy that will help pull it back to the west.
Based on consensus and climatology, the graphics in the gallery above show what is most likely given what we know right now.
In Greensboro, for example, there is a 52 percent chance for one inch of snow or more. Looking at the chance for six inches of snow, the odds drop significantly, down to a 10 percent chance.
Factoring in the warm ground, there will be melting on surfaces with direct contact to the ground. Elevated objects (picnic tables, decks, tall grass, etc.) will more easily see accumulation. Keep in mind if this plays out, we can still get slush on roadways if the rate of precipitation is fast enough to overcome the melting.
At this moment, the most likely scenario for the Triad area is near one inch of snow. Some spots could be higher. Areas south of the Triad come in with less.