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Winter Weather Advisory issued for Piedmont Triad – the latest from Van Denton

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FOX8 Chief Meteorologist Van Denton provides the very latest on today's snow and the storm later this week:

"Don't dismiss today's quick burst of flurries and snow showers. The ground is frozen and this could cause more issues than normal given that it could put a thin layer of ice on some roads. The National Weather Service has now issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this threat. Mid-afternoon through early evening is the time period we are threatened. Earlier in the west.

** For the latest weather closings and delays click here

Major impacts are expected by the next system. Models have gone back to a later start time Thursday night. This will likely begin as snow and sleet and gradually transition to freezing rain (first in the south). Snow and sleet will fall longer in the north and west. Our biggest threat for freezing rain will come on Friday and there could be enough for power issues. Then as colder air returns in the 5,000-10,000-foot-range, that layer of melting will be removed and we should go back over to snow.

I realize you are seeing all types of numbers. People want to see the numbers and this far out they are rarely correct. The science doesn't allow for these numbers to be accurate or reliable this far out. Given that this event is still 3+ days from being over (Saturday) don't get too attached to a specific number."

This far out, I have found better luck with odds.

First, our odds are high for significant ice. See the first graphic for chances of 0.50" of freezing rain.

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When I say ice, I am only speaking of freezing rain, the kind that accumulates on trees. This number is not including sleet which does not stick to trees. Sleet is added to snowfall totals (even though it is ice and confuses some). This amount of freezing rain (ice) would likely cause some power and tree issues.

Snowfall odds: We have a high 60-70 percent chance to get at least 2 inches of snow and sleet and a 40-50 percent chance to get 4 inches or more.

If I had to make an early guess on numbers, and that is exactly what I am doing here, I would say prepare for 3-6 inches of snow and sleet total in the Triad and 1/4 to 1/2 inch of freezing rain. There will likely be less freezing rain north and west with more snow and sleet there."

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