Weather Blog: Probability of having late winter snows

snow

After Feb. 24, it has snowed at least five inches at the Piedmont Triad International Airport 13 times in the past 86 years. That works out to 15.1 percent odds for that much snow after that date.

There is, however, a slim chance for any snow over the next few days at best.

There is a small chance there could be some snow or precipitation Wednesday morning — a 30 percent chance prior to 7 a.m. and dropping to 25 percent after 7 a.m. At most precipitation would range from a trace to 0.02 inches, if at all.

There could be a very slight chance of a snow shower Saturday morning, though current models are suggesting a moisture-starved system.

Farther out, next Monday morning there may be a slightly better chance of some precipitation but the track may be a bit too far to the north.

We have seen the big snows over five inches 6 times since 1980. The previous 53 years produced 7. So it has happened more in recent decades than in the old days. If you take away the 1960s, it would be even more lopsided. There have been many more under five inches.

Many of our biggest snows all-time have come after this date. The biggest, in 1927, was 20 inches that fell on March 3-4. In 1960, March brought more than 23 inches in three separate snowstorms.

The big story over the next few days will be the colder air moving back in, pushing daytime highs to the 40s and overnight lows into the 20s.

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