7 p.m. Monday Weather Update:
This is the first graphic that I have put out accumulation for this midweek storm. For days we have been looking at models and model projections and we have all seen a variety of numbers.
I have also shared probability maps from the National Weather Service.
Given that the system is still in the process of coming together (upper energy still is out west in Utah and Arizona) we need to be prepared for some adjustments to totals depending on the exact track of the system.
At this time, I have placed areas west and northwest of the Triad in the 6 inches PLUS area and the Triad at 4-6 inches.
There could be 2-4 inches east and south of the Triad.
These numbers will be impacted by the exact track of the storm and how deep the low pressure actually gets when the upper energy catches up with it.
Many have asked why I am not already calling for 10+ inches when I expect 1 to 1.25 inches of precipitation to fall (you know, the 10 to 1 ratio for snow).
The reason is simple; we expect some sleet to get involved with this system and feel right now that will reach near the Triad. That would cut into snowfall amounts. West of here, there is not as much of a chance.
Still, given that we are days away and the track can change (cut into moisture… produce more sleet or freezing rain), it is too early to just close my mind to the other possibilities. I realize more is possible and as we get closer, if it still looks good, I will bump my numbers up.
But, it could go the other way too.
For folks in the east between Interstate 95 and Highway 1 (Raleigh area to Sandhills), be prepared for some snow, but possibly a major issue with the ice. 1/4-inch or more can cause power outages.
Stay tuned for updates.