Weather blog: An ‘interesting’ system to watch for this weekend

van

van

A system that will come up this weekend will likely spread a cold rain into the area on Saturday.

Temperatures at critical levels above the ground should be too warm for snow. So at the lower levels, we have to watch to make sure it stays above 32 to prevent freezing rain. The best chance for that will be northwest of the Triad.

On Sunday, the upper levels will get colder and we may see this end as snow. It’s too far out to be specific yet as this system will continue to change with each update of the computer models.

This is the same system that models have been hinting at for nearly a week. Many of you have seen the snowfall projections going around on Facebook for the past several days – some even showing 20+ inches in parts of central North Carolina.

Unfortunately, many people started posting these images way too early and getting hopes up for some and worrying those that don’t want to see snow.

It’s a model outlook, and it’s usually only one possibility of many that the model puts out. The European Model has 51 projections each cycle. Picking 1 of the 51 is not the best way to forecast. I like to look at the consensus.

We have had data like this available for years, but only recently has it become more available to the general public. This combined with the “share” option on Facebook has led to things spreading like wildfire.

We will post data when confidence is high enough for it to be reported. Otherwise, if you put a forecast out that shows 12+ inches of snow and 12 hours later the new model run shows nothing, it’s hard to build trust with that type of inconsistency.

11 comments

  • Katie

    Thank you for your level headed report Van…I never watch anyone but you for weather information because you are an excellent meteorologist and your passion shows. I work outdoors and must rely on accuracy…you are the best!

  • stmwatch

    Van has always been level headed. If he gets excited, it’s probably going to happen. Otherwise he is always truthful and very accurate. We are blessed to have him and his service to the community.

  • Badkitty21

    I would love to hear Fox(Van’s) opinion and comments surrounding the questions being raised about this last winter weather system. Some are saying the snow didn’t seem real! Crazy I know! But there are tons of videos online of people in NC attempting to melt the snow and no water is generated at all! It’s like it almost just deteriates, like plastics or something. I’m not conspiracy theorist or anything just wondering what someone that actually knows what there talking about thinks??

    • Steve

      There wasn’t a lot of moisture content in that last snow because the air was so cold so it was a really “powder” snow instead of a heavy wet snow that you get when the air temps are around or slight above freezing. That’s why there wasn’t a lot of water when you melted the snow.

  • Badkitty21

    I also wanted to add that here in High Point that there was some kind of film left on all the bodies of water after the snow. Oak Hollow lake was really bad! Covered in a film, it almost looked like it was frozen over, but it was 60 degrees and was certainly not frozen over. The “theory” that’s circulating on the web indicated the front was man made somehow or something was put into the air! Now I know a man made front sounds a little out there and I’m not claiming to believe it, but seeing these videos does make you question it. Copy and paste this link below to see the “snow” being heated. No melting and no water! Does seem a little strange!
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5tEza2wB20c#

  • Kenny Hicks

    Are there a clearance sale on tinfoil hats here? Jesus people, this “fake snow” was already debunked 1000 times over last week. Now, crawl back under your rocks and take you tinfoil hats with you.

    • Badkitty21

      Clearly you have issues comprehending what you read. Because if not you would have realized that I clearly was just asking the question and didn’t claim that it was some snow conspiracy! So you were very premature on attempting to be rude! As for the tin foil hat, if I had one, I now would know a great place to stick it after your comments!

  • Unpleted

    upto I saw the paycheck which said $8436 , I didn’t believe …that…my best friend was like they say truly bringing in money parttime on their laptop. . there friends cousin has been doing this for only about eleven months and just now repaid the loans on there cottage and bought a new Jaguar XJ .

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  • larry r

    VAN IS WORLD CLASS AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED.HE TELLS THE WEATHER AS GOOD AS CAN BE PREDICTED.VAN YOURE MY WEATHER HERO.

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